Dividends Moving Higher

Despite the dismal market this week, two of our companies announced dividend increases.

AFLAC (AFL) initiated a 7% hike increasing their dividend to $.30 a share. The stock now has a current yield of 2.4%. The company has also made a commitment to buy back stock. They may buy back as much as 3 million shares by the end of 2010 and plan to purchase 6 million shares in 2011.

Illinois Tool Works (ITW) announced a 105 dividend increase to$.34 per share. The stock has $2.55 in free cash flow per share and a current dividend yield of 3%.


Disclaimer: NO CONTENT PUBLISHED AS PART OF THE CAIM LLC BLOG CONSTITUTES A RECOMMENDATION THAT ANY PARTICULAR INVESTMENT, SECURITY, PORTFOLIO OF SECURITIES, TRANSACTION OR INVESTMENT STRATEGY IS SUITABLE FOR ANY SPECIFIC PERSON. TO THE EXTENT ANY OF THE CONTENT PUBLISHED AS PART OF THE BLOG MAY BE DEEMED TO BE INVESTMENT ADVICE, SUCH INFORMATION IS IMPERSONAL AND MAY NOT NECESSARILY MEET THE OBJECTIVES OR NEEDS OF ANY SPECIFIC INDIVIDUAL OR ACCOUNT, OR BE SUITABLE ADVICE FOR ANY PARTICULAR READER. EACH READER AGREES AND ACKNOWLEDGES THAT ANY SPECIFIC ADVICE OR INVESTMENT DISCUSSED IN THE BLOG MUST BE INDEPENDENTLY EVALUATED BY THE READER AND HIS OR HER ADVISER IN VIEW OF THE READER'S INVESTMENT NEEDS AND OBJECTIVES.

Bond Holders Beware

Good news for International Business Machine (IBM), bad news for investors. On August 2nd, IBM sold $1.5 billion of 3 year debt at a 1% interest rate. This rate is a mere .3% higher than government debt with a 3 year maturity and 50% less than the dividend yield on the common stock.

The Wall Street Journal had a great article talking about IBM’s remarkable track record of being able to issue low rates on bonds right before the Federal Reserve raises rates (link to article: http://blogs.wsj.com/marketbeat/2010/08/05/is-big-blue-flashing-a-bond-warning/?mod=wsjcrmain).

Pretty smart for IBM. If they used the proceeds to buy back their own stock, they are borrowing at 1% to get 2% on their dividend so even if the stock went nowhere they are still ahead of the game. If their track record holds true, this is bad news for bond holders. Higher rates will mean losses for bond investors.
Our advice? Buy the stock with a 2% dividend yield and put it away for the next 5 years.



Disclaimer: NO CONTENT PUBLISHED AS PART OF THE CAIM LLC BLOG CONSTITUTES A RECOMMENDATION THAT ANY PARTICULAR INVESTMENT, SECURITY, PORTFOLIO OF SECURITIES, TRANSACTION OR INVESTMENT STRATEGY IS SUITABLE FOR ANY SPECIFIC PERSON. TO THE EXTENT ANY OF THE CONTENT PUBLISHED AS PART OF THE BLOG MAY BE DEEMED TO BE INVESTMENT ADVICE, SUCH INFORMATION IS IMPERSONAL AND MAY NOT NECESSARILY MEET THE OBJECTIVES OR NEEDS OF ANY SPECIFIC INDIVIDUAL OR ACCOUNT, OR BE SUITABLE ADVICE FOR ANY PARTICULAR READER. EACH READER AGREES AND ACKNOWLEDGES THAT ANY SPECIFIC ADVICE OR INVESTMENT DISCUSSED IN THE BLOG MUST BE INDEPENDENTLY EVALUATED BY THE READER AND HIS OR HER ADVISER IN VIEW OF THE READER'S INVESTMENT NEEDS AND OBJECTIVES.

International Business Machine 2Q 2010 Earnings

This is a company we want to own for the long term and are buyers on weakness in price. Stock is down based on disappointing revenue number. Overall earnings slightly beat consensus. We expect the revenue number to be mixed over this sluggish period of economic growth. We are encouraged by the following positives:
1. Dividend has increased by 18%.
2. Europe and China did not slowdown.
3. Services were down in the 2Q but expect to ramp up in 3Q. International Business Machine 2Q 2010 Earnings


Disclaimer: NO CONTENT PUBLISHED AS PART OF THE CAIM LLC BLOG CONSTITUTES A RECOMMENDATION THAT ANY PARTICULAR INVESTMENT, SECURITY, PORTFOLIO OF SECURITIES, TRANSACTION OR INVESTMENT STRATEGY IS SUITABLE FOR ANY SPECIFIC PERSON. TO THE EXTENT ANY OF THE CONTENT PUBLISHED AS PART OF THE BLOG MAY BE DEEMED TO BE INVESTMENT ADVICE, SUCH INFORMATION IS IMPERSONAL AND MAY NOT NECESSARILY MEET THE OBJECTIVES OR NEEDS OF ANY SPECIFIC INDIVIDUAL OR ACCOUNT, OR BE SUITABLE ADVICE FOR ANY PARTICULAR READER. EACH READER AGREES AND ACKNOWLEDGES THAT ANY SPECIFIC ADVICE OR INVESTMENT DISCUSSED IN THE BLOG MUST BE INDEPENDENTLY EVALUATED BY THE READER AND HIS OR HER ADVISER IN VIEW OF THE READER'S INVESTMENT NEEDS AND OBJECTIVES.

Intel's 2nd Quarter

Intel’s (INTC) 2nd quarter came in at $.51, well above street estimate of $.43. Gross margins exceeded expectations at 67.2% versus 64%e. We are encouraged by management’s increase in guidance for the 3rd quarter despite the fact that inventories grew 12% quarter to quarter.
Company will benefit from the following areas:
1. Rebound in IT spending.
2. PC growth in emerging markets.
3. Increase in higher margin products.
In our opinion, this company continues to remain undervalued based on its ability to grow earnings and a superior balance sheet. Even if the stock traded at a market multiple for 2010, it would be worth $25.80 or a 22% increase from current price




Disclaimer: NO CONTENT PUBLISHED AS PART OF THE CAIM LLC BLOG CONSTITUTES A RECOMMENDATION THAT ANY PARTICULAR INVESTMENT, SECURITY, PORTFOLIO OF SECURITIES, TRANSACTION OR INVESTMENT STRATEGY IS SUITABLE FOR ANY SPECIFIC PERSON. TO THE EXTENT ANY OF THE CONTENT PUBLISHED AS PART OF THE BLOG MAY BE DEEMED TO BE INVESTMENT ADVICE, SUCH INFORMATION IS IMPERSONAL AND MAY NOT NECESSARILY MEET THE OBJECTIVES OR NEEDS OF ANY SPECIFIC INDIVIDUAL OR ACCOUNT, OR BE SUITABLE ADVICE FOR ANY PARTICULAR READER. EACH READER AGREES AND ACKNOWLEDGES THAT ANY SPECIFIC ADVICE OR INVESTMENT DISCUSSED IN THE BLOG MUST BE INDEPENDENTLY EVALUATED BY THE READER AND HIS OR HER ADVISER IN VIEW OF THE READER'S INVESTMENT NEEDS AND OBJECTIVES.

2nd Quarter and Year to Date Performance

Since the beginning of the year we have been talking about having a bumpy stock market this year. Year to date, the S&P 500 is down 7.6% In the second quarter, we hit a pretty hard bump with the S&P 500 down 11.9%. The combination of health care reform, Greece (and the other PIIGS countries) and financial services reform sent people running from the stock market to the safety of treasuries. So much so, that the 10 year bond is now yielding 2.95% and the 2 year note is at .62%. Compare this to a 2.8% dividend yield on the Dow. We also had some hiccups in the weekly unemployment claims. It has always been our belief that the economic recovery would be driven by capital spending with a sluggish consumer. We still believe that to be true. Our philosophy of buying high quality large cap dividend paying stocks is even more appropriate in this environment. As long term investors we recognize that these stocks offer great value when compared to bonds and cash. The next few years we expect a slow growing economy and these stocks have the financial strength and flexibility to thrive in that environment.

CAIM LLC's 2nd quarter performance was -9.66% versus -11.9% for the S&P 500. Year to date we are -4.16% versus -7.6% for the S&P 500. Our overall stock selection has been better than the market and we are continuing to hold a 6% average cash position.








Disclaimer: NO CONTENT PUBLISHED AS PART OF THE CAIM LLC BLOG CONSTITUTES A RECOMMENDATION THAT ANY PARTICULAR INVESTMENT, SECURITY, PORTFOLIO OF SECURITIES, TRANSACTION OR INVESTMENT STRATEGY IS SUITABLE FOR ANY SPECIFIC PERSON. TO THE EXTENT ANY OF THE CONTENT PUBLISHED AS PART OF THE BLOG MAY BE DEEMED TO BE INVESTMENT ADVICE, SUCH INFORMATION IS IMPERSONAL AND MAY NOT NECESSARILY MEET THE OBJECTIVES OR NEEDS OF ANY SPECIFIC INDIVIDUAL OR ACCOUNT, OR BE SUITABLE ADVICE FOR ANY PARTICULAR READER. EACH READER AGREES AND ACKNOWLEDGES THAT ANY SPECIFIC ADVICE OR INVESTMENT DISCUSSED IN THE BLOG MUST BE INDEPENDENTLY EVALUATED BY THE READER AND HIS OR HER ADVISER IN VIEW OF THE READER'S INVESTMENT NEEDS AND OBJECTIVES.

Media Appearance

For all of you across the country Catherine Avery of CAIM, LLC will be featured tomorrow, July 1st, on the 5:30 pm and 7:30 pm newscasts on News 12 CT, Channel 12, 12 on the Money. Tune in to hear more about Baby Boomers and Investing!



Disclaimer: NO CONTENT PUBLISHED AS PART OF THE CAIM LLC BLOG CONSTITUTES A RECOMMENDATION THAT ANY PARTICULAR INVESTMENT, SECURITY, PORTFOLIO OF SECURITIES, TRANSACTION OR INVESTMENT STRATEGY IS SUITABLE FOR ANY SPECIFIC PERSON. TO THE EXTENT ANY OF THE CONTENT PUBLISHED AS PART OF THE BLOG MAY BE DEEMED TO BE INVESTMENT ADVICE, SUCH INFORMATION IS IMPERSONAL AND MAY NOT NECESSARILY MEET THE OBJECTIVES OR NEEDS OF ANY SPECIFIC INDIVIDUAL OR ACCOUNT, OR BE SUITABLE ADVICE FOR ANY PARTICULAR READER. EACH READER AGREES AND ACKNOWLEDGES THAT ANY SPECIFIC ADVICE OR INVESTMENT DISCUSSED IN THE BLOG MUST BE INDEPENDENTLY EVALUATED BY THE READER AND HIS OR HER ADVISER IN VIEW OF THE READER'S INVESTMENT NEEDS AND OBJECTIVES.

Where's the Faith?

It's not in the equity markets, that's for sure. Yesterday's lack of confidence drove the 10 year bond yields to 2.96%. It's hard to believe that anyone would lend the debt laden government money for that price.

22 names in our portfolio yield 3% or higher. All of these companies are high cash flow generators and have low levels of debt. You have to believe that 10 years from now that we, as a country have the determination to turn around this economic malaise. If that's the case, these stocks are cheap and will reward investors over the long term. Let's not forget that with all that cash on the balance sheet, some of it will be going to increase the dividend. Does anyone think the government will raise your interest payment on the 10 year bond?






Disclaimer: NO CONTENT PUBLISHED AS PART OF THE CAIM LLC BLOG CONSTITUTES A RECOMMENDATION THAT ANY PARTICULAR INVESTMENT, SECURITY, PORTFOLIO OF SECURITIES, TRANSACTION OR INVESTMENT STRATEGY IS SUITABLE FOR ANY SPECIFIC PERSON. TO THE EXTENT ANY OF THE CONTENT PUBLISHED AS PART OF THE BLOG MAY BE DEEMED TO BE INVESTMENT ADVICE, SUCH INFORMATION IS IMPERSONAL AND MAY NOT NECESSARILY MEET THE OBJECTIVES OR NEEDS OF ANY SPECIFIC INDIVIDUAL OR ACCOUNT, OR BE SUITABLE ADVICE FOR ANY PARTICULAR READER. EACH READER AGREES AND ACKNOWLEDGES THAT ANY SPECIFIC ADVICE OR INVESTMENT DISCUSSED IN THE BLOG MUST BE INDEPENDENTLY EVALUATED BY THE READER AND HIS OR HER ADVISER IN VIEW OF THE READER'S INVESTMENT NEEDS AND OBJECTIVES.